Molybdenum→316L Cost Transmission: Mo at 3-Year High, Nickel Surges on Indonesia Policy
Core Data (May 6, Mysteel)
| Commodity | Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferromolybdenum | 298,000 CNY/ton | Flat | 3-year high |
| Molybdenum Oxide | 4,860 CNY/ton-unit | ↑ (since 4/29) | Rising |
| Mo Concentrate (45-50%) | 4,720–4,750 CNY/ton-unit | Flat | — |
| High-Grade Nickel Pig Iron | 1,150 CNY/Ni | +5 | Strengthening |
| High-Carbon Ferrochrome | 8,475 CNY/base ton | Flat | — |
316L Finished Product Prices
| Product | Mill | Price (CNY/ton) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CR 2.0mm | Yongjin | 29,300 | Flat |
| CR 2.0mm | Zhangpu | 29,500 | Flat |
| HR 5.0mm | Tsingshan | 28,900 | +100 |
| Wire rod φ5.5 | Tsingshan | 28,700 | Flat |
| Mid-bar | Tsingshan Wenzhou | 27,950 | +900 |
304 Reference
| Product | Mill | Price (CNY/ton) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CR 2.0mm | Yongjin | 15,750 | +100 |
| HR 5.0mm | Tsingshan | 15,200 | +100 |
Scrap Steel
| Grade | Price (CNY/ton) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 316 Scrap (Wenzhou) | 20,950 | +200 |
| 304 Scrap (Wenzhou) | 10,250 | +100 |
Daily Market Commentary
Post-Holiday First Trading Day
Molybdenum holds at the pre-holiday high of 298K CNY/ton. Trading has not yet returned to normal rhythm after the May Day break.
Nickel emerges as the strongest variable. Indonesia's nickel export tariff/windfall tax news has ignited the market — LME nickel surged to 19,750–19,900, SHFE nickel rocketed to 153,000–155,000 CNY/ton.
304 driven by nickel, generally up 100–200 CNY. Tsingshan's futures guide price for 304 CR increased 800–1,000 CNY.
316L CR holds steady, HR +100, mid-bar +900 (Tsingshan list price). The moly premium remains firm but volume is thin post-holiday.
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Q1 net profit +33% YoY. Mine owners show strong reluctance to sell at current levels.
Cost Transmission Signals
🔗 Mo → 316L Transmission
Molybdenum prices are deadlocked at highs. 316L cost support remains rock-solid, but post-holiday trading volume has not materialized — transmission temporarily blocked by thin liquidity.
🔗 Ni → All-Grades Transmission
Indonesia policy is the stronger catalyst. Nickel +5,250 has already transmitted fully into 304 and 316 prices. The 316–304 price gap stands at ~13,600–14,000 CNY/ton — nickel's rally is widening 304 gains while 316's relative upside lags.
🔗 Scrap → Smelting Cost
316 scrap +200, 304 scrap +100. Short-route smelting costs continue to rise, adding floor support for both grades.
📎 Tiangong International Adjustment (4/30)
Mo-containing steel grades: +500 CNY/ton per 1% Mo content. This is a direct transmission of ferromolybdenum cost into finished product pricing.
72-Hour Outlook
📈 Molybdenum
High consolidation at 296K–300K CNY/ton. Bottom support extremely strong (mine reluctance + Jinduicheng Q1 beat). Breakout above 300K unlikely without new supply disruption.
📈 Nickel
Indonesia policy still developing. Short-term bullish bias. Watch 155,000 CNY resistance on SHFE. If Indonesia officially announces the tariff, another 3–5% leg up is possible.
📈 316L
Cost support + nickel catalyst → short-term bullish bias. CR may follow up +100–200 CNY as trading normalizes. However, 316 upside capped relative to 304 because the moly premium is already at 3-year highs and buyers resist further increases.
⚠️ Risks
High prices suppressing order volume → downstream观望 (wait-and-see) intensifies. Ferrochrome tender price softening (Guangdong mill -213 CNY/base ton) could signal cost-side erosion for chromium-bearing grades.
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Real-time pricing from major mills — Yongjin, Zhangpu, Tsingshan
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