What is the current Mo ferroalloy price and why is it rising?

Mo ferroalloy (MoFe) was priced at 309,500 yuan/ton on May 11, 2026 - up 4,500 in a single day, the sharpest gain of the week. The cumulative rally since Labor Day (May 1) is now +7,500+/ton. The rally was driven by: (1) active steel mill enquiries - Qingshan mill confirmed booking at 298,000 yuan/ton, a Fujian mill paid 303,000 yuan/ton on May 9, setting a new market benchmark; (2) intensifying supplier stock-holding behavior - mills are competing for spot availability as availability tightens; (3) sustained demand from the stainless steel sector. Industry participants expect the rally to continue as cost pressure builds.

Why have 316L spot prices not moved despite the MoFe rally?

This is a classic cost transmission lag. The 316L cold-rolled spot market is still at 29,600 (Yongjin) / 29,800 (Zhangpu) yuan/ton with no upward adjustment - even though the 316L smelting cost has already climbed to 27,323 yuan/ton based on current Mo prices. The mill margin is being squeezed. The transmission lag exists because: (1) mills have inventory buffers - they are still processing lower-cost material purchased in previous rounds; (2) demand is moderate - buyers are not in a rush; (3) 304 segment is softening and dragging overall stainless steel market sentiment. Industry participants expect mills to raise 316L spot offers within the next 1-2 weeks as cost pressure becomes unsustainable at current levels.

What does the MoFe rally mean for 316L buyers?

If you have a procurement cycle coming up in the next 2-3 weeks, place orders now to lock in current 316L spot levels before mill price adjustments take effect. MoFe momentum suggests prices will move up - the 27,323 yuan/ton smelting cost at current Mo pricing is already above what mills paid for their inventory, and that cost must eventually reach the market. The window for locking in current prices is approximately 1-2 weeks before the upward price adjustment materializes.

Why is the 304 stainless steel market weakening?

304 cold-rolled fell 50-100 yuan/ton across the board on May 11, and stainless steel futures (SHFE) closed at 15,185 yuan/ton, down 85. The 304 weakness is dragging overall stainless steel market sentiment down, creating a counter-force to the Mo-driven cost pressure on 316L. Nickel and ferronickel are flat to slightly firm - nickel at ~148,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel at 19,100-19,200/mt - which provides limited upward cost support. The combination of moderate demand, 304 softness, and cost push from Mo creates a mixed outlook: 316L prices will likely rise due to Mo cost pressure, but 304 weakness may limit how much the market can absorb.

What is the current 316L cold-rolled spot price in China?

316L cold-rolled spot prices on May 11, 2026 were: Yongjin at 29,600 yuan/ton, Zhangpu at 29,800 yuan/ton, and Taizhou/others at similar levels. These prices were flat week-on-week - the lack of movement despite a strong MoFe rally is the key market story. The 316L hot-rolled smelting cost has climbed to 27,323 yuan/ton based on current Mo pricing, meaning the theoretical mill margin at current spot prices is thin and shrinking. With MoFe continuing to rally, mills will need to raise offers or reduce output. The next 1-2 weeks will be critical for price direction.

Daily: Mo铁 Rally Pushes 316L Cost to ¥27,323/ton

1. Core Market Data — May 11, 2026

Mo Ferroalloy (MoFe)

¥309,500/ton

▲ +¥4,500 ↑↑

Cumulative gain since Labor Day: +¥7,500+

Mo Concentrate 45%

¥4,750–4,780/tu

▲ Rising

45% Mo grade per metric ton unit

316L Smelting Cost (Hot-Rolled, Short Process)

¥27,323/ton

▲ +Cost pressure building

Based on current Mo price

316L Cold-Rolled Spot (Yongjin/ZPS/TPC)

¥29,600 / ¥29,800

— Flat WoW

MoFe has rallied to ¥309,500/ton (+¥7,500 since Labor Day), pushing 316L smelting cost to ¥27,323/ton — but 316L cold-rolled spot is still flat at ¥29,600-29,800/ton. This cost-squeeze gap cannot hold: mills are currently processing higher-cost Mo with thin or negative margins at current spot prices. Industry participants expect mills to raise 316L cold-rolled offers within 1-2 weeks. If you have a procurement cycle coming up, place orders now to lock in current spot levels before the upward price adjustment materializes — the MoFe momentum is unambiguously upward and 316L must follow.

Yongjin ¥29,600 / Zhangpu ¥29,800 / Taiyuan (per ton)

304 Cold-Rolled Spot

¥14,900–15,400/ton

▼ -¥50~100

Market sentiment weakens

304 Hot-Rolled Spot

¥14,900–15,000/ton

— Flat / stable

Hold for now

High-Ni Ferronickel

¥1,160/Ni

— Flat

Per nickel unit

High-Carbon Ferrochrome

¥8,450/bmt

— Flat

Per base metric ton

Shanghai Nickel / LME Nickel (Reference)

~¥148,000/ton | LME $19,100–19,200/mt

— Flat, slight支撑

Nickel gives limited cost support to 316L pricing

2. Day-on-Day Change Summary

Product	Price (¥/ton)	Day Change	Trend
Mo Ferroalloy	309,500	▲ +4,500	Strong rally
Mo Concentrate 45%	4,750–4,780/tu	▲ Rising	Upward
316L Cold-Rolled (Yongjin)	29,600	— Flat	Consolidating
316L Cold-Rolled (Zhangpu)	29,800	— Flat	Consolidating
304 Cold-Rolled	14,900–15,400	▼ -50~100	Softening
304 Hot-Rolled	14,900–15,000	— Flat	Stable
High-Ni Ferronickel	1,160/Ni	— Flat	Flat
High-Carbon FeCr	8,450/bmt	— Flat	Flat
Source: Mysteel (May 11), Chinatungsten Online (May 9), Sohu Metals (May 11)

3. Key Market Events Today

3.1 Mo Ferroalloy — Labor Day Cumulative Rally Now +¥7,500+

Mo ferroalloy has been on a strong upward trajectory since the Labor Day holiday (May 1). Day-by-day trajectory:

May 7: First rally, +¥1,000/ton
May 9: Second rally, +¥2,000/ton
May 11: Third rally, +¥4,500/ton — sharpest single-day gain this week

Steel mill enquiry activity remains active. Recent mill booking prices:

Qingshan (青山): ¥298,000/ton confirmed booking
某 Fujian Mill: ¥303,000/ton (May 9 booking) — sets new benchmark

Supplier stock-holding behavior intensifying. Mills competing for spot availability pushing prices upward.

3.2 316L Spot Holds — Transmission Lag Alert

The most critical observation today: 316L cold-rolled spot prices are unmoved despite a sustained Mo ferroalloy rally.

⚠️ Alert: Cost transmission lag of approximately 1–2 weeks. 316L smelting cost has climbed to ¥27,323/ton. With Yongjin offering at ¥29,600 and Zhangpu at ¥29,800, the mill margin is being squeezed. Industry participants expect mills to raise spot offers within the next 1–2 weeks as cost pressure becomes unsustainable at current price levels.

3.3 304 Segment Weakens — Drag on Market Sentiment

304 cold-rolled fell ¥50–100 across the board. Stainless steel futures (SHFE) closed at ¥15,185, down ¥85. The weaker 304 performance is dragging overall stainless steel market sentiment down, creating a counter-force to the Mo-driven cost pressure on 316L pricing.

3.4 Nickel / Ferronickel — Flat, Limited Support

Shanghai nickel ~¥148,000/ton, LME nickel $19,100–19,200/mt. Both flat to slightly firm. This provides limited upward cost support to stainless steel pricing — not enough to offset demand-side weakness in the 304 segment.

3.5 Scrap Prices — No Movement

316 Scrap

¥21,250/ton

— Flat

No change, secondary raw material stable

304 Scrap

¥10,350/ton

— Flat

Secondary raw material stable

4. Cost Transmission Signal Assessment

⚠️

Cost-Push Signal Active

Mo ferroalloy rally accumulating — 316L cost base rising. Mills under margin pressure. Next move: mill price adjustment likely within 1–2 weeks.

→

Transmission Lag ~1–2 Weeks

316L cold-rolled still at ¥29,600–29,800. No upward adjustment yet. Lag due to: mill inventory buffer, moderate demand, 304 drag.

↓

304 Dragging Market Sentiment

304 cold-rolled falling ¥50–100. Futures soft. Nickel flat. Overall stainless mood is cautious, limiting 316L price upside visibility.

Implication for buyers: If you have a procurement cycle coming up in the next 2–3 weeks, consider placing orders now to lock in current 316L spot levels before mill price adjustments take effect. Mo ferroalloy momentum suggests ¥30,000+ for 316L cold-rolled may become the floor by late May.

5. 72-Hour Trend Forecast

1. Mo Ferroalloy — Expect ¥300,000–310,000 Range Consolidation

Steel mill enquiries ongoing. Supplier stock-holding reducing spot liquidity. Short-term momentum is positive. Expect ¥300,000–¥310,000/ton range for the next 3–5 days.

Confidence: High

2. 316L Spot — Mill Price Adjustment Highly Likely This Week

Cost pressure from Mo is now significant. With smelting cost at ¥27,323/ton and spot at ¥29,600–29,800, margin is being compressed. Watch for Taiyuan / Zhangpu 316L cold-rolled mill offer adjustment — expected this week or early next week.

Confidence: High

3. 304 — Weak Tone, ¥15,100–15,300 Futures Range Expected

Futures are soft, spot is falling. No major support from nickel at current levels. Expect 304 cold-rolled to remain under downward pressure, possibly testing lower support levels.

Confidence: Medium

4. Key Watchpoints for This Week

Taiyuan (太钢) and Zhangpu (张浦) May mid-cycle 316L mill offers: Any upward revision will confirm cost transmission. Nickel at ¥148,000 support: If nickel holds above ¥148,000, stainless steel cost floor is maintained. Watch for downside breach risk if macro sentiment turns.

Confidence: Medium

6. What This Means for Your Procurement

If your procurement cycle falls within the next 2–3 weeks, the window to lock in current prices may be closing. Here's the logic:

316L: Smelting cost now at ¥27,323/ton — significant upward cost pressure. Mill price adjustment likely this week. Place orders before the adjustment if your project timeline allows.
304: Still drifting lower. No urgent need to chase — monitor futures for timing.
Mo ferroalloy: Momentum still positive. Monitor daily Mysteel pricing for any reversal signal.

For Hastelloy C-276 / Inconel buyers: Mo is the key cost driver for C-276 (contains ~16% Mo). If your supplier's C-276 pricing is tied to Mo market, expect upward price pressure in coming weeks. Get firm quotes now rather than waiting.

Data Sources: Mysteel (May 11, 2026), Chinatungsten Online (May 9, 2026), Sohu Metals (May 11, 2026). Prices are indicative spot market reference rates. Actual transaction prices may vary. Contact Findsteel for firm mill offers.